The Guardian Prediction Poll - 7th June 2017

So, there we have it. A 12-point victory for the Conservatives is ICM’s preliminary call on our final poll, up from a 7-point victory for David Cameron just two years’ ago, representing a swing to the Conservatives of 2.5% (remembering that both party shares have increased compared to 2015).

This final poll confirms the pattern that ICM has produced over the last fortnight: a fairly healthy and static (aka strong & stable) Conservative share with consolidation of the Labour bump first witnessed after the manifesto publication.

Our PRELIMINARY numbers for publication are (based on 1,532 interviews and compared to last Monday’s poll in The Guardian:

Conservative 46% (+1)

Labour 34% (nc)

Lib Dem 7% (-1)

SNP 5% (+1)

Plaid Cymru *% (-1)

Green 2% (-1)

UKIP 5% (nc)

Other 1% (nc)

This compares to the 11-point lead published in The Guardian on Monday, this implying precious little movement in the last few days of the campaign.

We should note that ICM continues to interview, aiming for another c.500 interviews by the end of the day. The numbers might change, but we would not expect them to do so by much.

According to Electoral Calculus seat projections. This would yield a Conservative majority of 96, with 373 seats in their possession compared to 199 for Labour (which might be seen by party insiders as a decent outcome). Not so much for the Liberal Democrats though, predicted to drop to only two seats on this modelling.

Speculation about the polls being right or wrong is ubiquitous right now, with much of it concentrating on closer run polls produced by Survation and Yougov compared to us and ComRes. Intriguingly, a number high profile political journalists continue to predict that the Tories will do better than even our poll is saying (given musings they hear from the ground), so this really has become a nail-gnawing electoral event, rather than the absolute rout that we all were fixed on just a month ago.

The public, though, may not have been reading the journo’s stuff. Only one in ten  (12%) expects a Tory majority at the 100+  top end of the range, with a plurality (38%) believing it will be secured, but only by double figures. Fewer than one in five (17%) expect a hung parliament, with the great optimists being the 7% who think Labour will secure the keys to Number 10 (18% of Labour voters they Jeremey Corbyn will smash it).

But whatever the outcome, there’s a strong chance that Corbyn will stay on, according to the public. As many (24%) think he should do so no matter what (a few delighted Tories are included in this number), with the same number saying so only on the basis of a Labour victory. One in five (20%) thinks he should do so, so long as Labour do better than their 2015 showing – although that’s not a very high bar given the return to two-party politics. Beating Ed Miliband’s 31% in 2015 should not present a great difficulty now, given the implosion of UKIP and the Liberal Democrats general malaise.

So the UK goes to the polls, with voters apparently armed with sufficient information to make an informed choice – 57% say they have been on enough of a receiving end to cast their ballot effectively, with Tory voters more so (72%) than their Labour counterparts (62%). Cynics amongst us may conclude that Theresa May’s policy-light manifesto didn’t take long to consume.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 1,532 GB adults aged 18+ on 6-7th June 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been wighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

18th April 2017 Snap Poll Results

This morning ICM/Guardian published an orthodox poll showing an 18-point Conservative lead. This reflected our position over the last two weeks, but was somewhat behind the brace of 21-point lead polls we saw over the weekend, one from YouGov and one from ComRes.

Maybe those two polls were the straws that broke Theresa May’s back, and responded with a U-turn on calling an early General Election. ICM immediately set in motion our election planning agenda, generating a Flash poll sample of 1,000 people, completed within four hours of the announcement.

Voting intentions compared to this morning’s poll are as follows:

Con 46% (+2)

Lab 25% (-1)

LibDem 11% (+1)

UKIP 8% (-3)

Green 4% (nc)

SNP 4% (nc)

PC *% (-1)

Oth 1% (nc)

But how the public respond to the snap election is key to this snap poll, and the PM can take heart from an immediate, positive response. Over half (55%) support her decision with only 15% against. But the pattern of response is not heavily weighted to 2015 Conservative voters – a narrow band of support is found across all the parties (with the slight exception of UKIP, whose supporters may fear what’s coming). Indeed as many (65%) Labour intenders support May’s decision as Tory intenders (64%) which must imply that its core is itching for the electoral fight.

The public recognises that May needs a mandate of her own, particularly with regard to Brexit. Six in ten (58%) think she is right to have called an early election, with only 17% thinking it wrong given the mandate she already has. A similar number (54%) believe that the situation has changed and the PM is right to have changed her mind.

And the public are pretty sure that she’s headed to a whopping overall majority. A quarter (24%) think it’ll be over 100 seats, with a further 29% suggesting it’ll be an overall majority but less than that number. With a third (33%) not knowing, that leaves only 14% who think another outcome is likely. It should be noted that 44% of current Labour intenders think the Tories will win some overall majority.

Brexit will undoubtedly feature strongly in this campaign, but the public won’t treat this as a second referendum. Indeed two in three (67%) will treat it as a normal General Election, with only 17% saying it’s a second Brexit referendum by proxy. This might explain why Brexit is only third on the list of issues important to people (23%) just edged out by immigration (24%) and jobs, prices and wages (25%). For many, Brexit is now priced in – easily the most preferred policy on it to promise Brexit no matter what (36%), with a further wanting it so long as negotiations work out well for the UK (25%). Only 15% want to reverse Brexit, which may dampen enthusiasm somewhat over at Liberal Democrat HQ.

So we have a 7-week campaign in front of us, and few would imagine that the Tory attack dogs will leave the Labour top team alone, constantly reminding the public of who the nation’s alternative leaders are. Well might they, sitting on a fat margin on economic competence (51% for May & Hammond vs 12% for Corbyn and McDonnell) and approval ratings for the PM of +33 compared to Corbyn’s -48.

As we enter this campaign it’s clear that Labour have an electoral mountain top climb, and its leadership appears to have left its ropes and crampons at base camp.

ICM Unlimited interview a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ online immediately after the announcement that General Election had been called on April 18th 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.