28th May 2017 Poll Results

Storm clouds have gathered in this General Election campaign. Rarely can there have been a more tumultuous and stunning sequence of events during a week of General Election campaigning,

The delivery of a hugely populist Labour manifesto with giveaways for all compared to a policy-light document hitting core Tory voting pensioners in their pockets hardly seems like a fair contest. The fact that the Tories had to quickly U-turn on social care then heaped on the impression of unreliability rather than Presidential-style strength. It might not have done though actually; more people (42%) respect the fact she’s capable of changing her mind and correcting her mistakes than think she can’t deliver strong and stable government (30%).

But some polls have moved as a result. That said, maybe we should just pump the breaks a little on this Tory collapse narrative. Our poll in today’s Sun on Sunday gives the Tories exactly the same pretty monstrous 14-point lead they had in our poll at the start of last week. If right, that’s a Tory majority in the House of Commons of 126 seats (they currently sit on a majority of only 16 seats). So the Tories are not shipwrecked after the storm, they’ve just had a bad week, and the storm clouds always move on elsewhere.

Labour have recovered somewhat it’s true, and at 32% in this poll it implies a better performance from Jeremey Corbyn than Ed Miliband managed two years ago.

But nearly all the fundamentals still point to a strong Tory result. Who would run the economy better? Duh. Hammond and May over Corbyn and McDonnell twice over.

Who would make the best Prime Minister? Despite a bad look this week it’s still hands-down Theresa May, 48% saying so compared to Corbyn’s 27%.

What about trust? Well, what have the Romans ever done for us? On defence, the nuclear button, terrorism, the nation’s finances, avoiding a recession, immigration, Brexit negotiations and helping with household finances it’s Prime Minister May over Prime Minister Corbyn every time. He does get a look in on the pretty important future of pensioners, the NHS and schools though.

And for dessert, what words do the public associate with each leader? For May, top of the list are: strong, intelligent and convincing. For Corbyn, he’s seen to understand people, and intelligence is in there but only in conjunction with being out of touch, weak, dangerous and irresponsible. Probably not the kind of endorsement he’s looking for.

Polls will go up and down, but despite the apparent improvement in Labour’s position, they are still in second place by a country mile. This leaves the question of what happens next for Labour? With some mutterings about the need for a new Centre-Left party we tested the idea among recent Labour voters. Most of them will stick it out with Labour even with Captain Corbyn still at the helm, or some other handpicked member of the hard Left.

After Manchester, the resilience and magnificence of the British public has been on full display. Most won’t be cowed in the face of the terror threat. Six in ten don’t fear for their personal safety now any more than they did last week, although 37% (mostly younger members of society) might think twice. The reintroduction of the death penalty might help – a full 65% would approve of it in the case of terrorist acts and for the murder of children, while 58% think it should apply to the murder of on-duty police officers. This has hardly moved from when we last asked it, back in November 2005.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,044 adults aged 18+ online, on 24-26th May 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

18th April 2017 Snap Poll Results

This morning ICM/Guardian published an orthodox poll showing an 18-point Conservative lead. This reflected our position over the last two weeks, but was somewhat behind the brace of 21-point lead polls we saw over the weekend, one from YouGov and one from ComRes.

Maybe those two polls were the straws that broke Theresa May’s back, and responded with a U-turn on calling an early General Election. ICM immediately set in motion our election planning agenda, generating a Flash poll sample of 1,000 people, completed within four hours of the announcement.

Voting intentions compared to this morning’s poll are as follows:

Con 46% (+2)

Lab 25% (-1)

LibDem 11% (+1)

UKIP 8% (-3)

Green 4% (nc)

SNP 4% (nc)

PC *% (-1)

Oth 1% (nc)

But how the public respond to the snap election is key to this snap poll, and the PM can take heart from an immediate, positive response. Over half (55%) support her decision with only 15% against. But the pattern of response is not heavily weighted to 2015 Conservative voters – a narrow band of support is found across all the parties (with the slight exception of UKIP, whose supporters may fear what’s coming). Indeed as many (65%) Labour intenders support May’s decision as Tory intenders (64%) which must imply that its core is itching for the electoral fight.

The public recognises that May needs a mandate of her own, particularly with regard to Brexit. Six in ten (58%) think she is right to have called an early election, with only 17% thinking it wrong given the mandate she already has. A similar number (54%) believe that the situation has changed and the PM is right to have changed her mind.

And the public are pretty sure that she’s headed to a whopping overall majority. A quarter (24%) think it’ll be over 100 seats, with a further 29% suggesting it’ll be an overall majority but less than that number. With a third (33%) not knowing, that leaves only 14% who think another outcome is likely. It should be noted that 44% of current Labour intenders think the Tories will win some overall majority.

Brexit will undoubtedly feature strongly in this campaign, but the public won’t treat this as a second referendum. Indeed two in three (67%) will treat it as a normal General Election, with only 17% saying it’s a second Brexit referendum by proxy. This might explain why Brexit is only third on the list of issues important to people (23%) just edged out by immigration (24%) and jobs, prices and wages (25%). For many, Brexit is now priced in – easily the most preferred policy on it to promise Brexit no matter what (36%), with a further wanting it so long as negotiations work out well for the UK (25%). Only 15% want to reverse Brexit, which may dampen enthusiasm somewhat over at Liberal Democrat HQ.

So we have a 7-week campaign in front of us, and few would imagine that the Tory attack dogs will leave the Labour top team alone, constantly reminding the public of who the nation’s alternative leaders are. Well might they, sitting on a fat margin on economic competence (51% for May & Hammond vs 12% for Corbyn and McDonnell) and approval ratings for the PM of +33 compared to Corbyn’s -48.

As we enter this campaign it’s clear that Labour have an electoral mountain top climb, and its leadership appears to have left its ropes and crampons at base camp.

ICM Unlimited interview a representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ online immediately after the announcement that General Election had been called on April 18th 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Hearts and minds

What people say can be at odds with what they feel, even when it comes to voting, says ICM’s Martin Boon, who believes this insight could be at the heart of a new way of conducting polling.

 

Hearts and Minds

You may have noticed that it’s hardly been the easiest of times for opinion pollsters lately. Not content with miserably failing to predict the right outcome at the 2015 General Election, final polls in the EU referendum – with one honourable exception – predicted a Remain triumph, and perhaps the ascendancy of President Trump has sealed polling’s fate among research professionals, pundits and, indeed, the general public.

Some of the critique might be a bit harsh – as many campaign polls predicted a Leave victory as did one for Remain, and actually Presidential polling was more accurate in 2016 than it was in 2012.

But no matter, we all know that the perception is more important than the reality so let’s just accept there’s plenty more work to be done reinventing the polling wheel. Indeed, some of us have already spent many more hours than is healthy trying to re-build a methodological process to accurately predict the state of the political parties at any given point in time.

Some good work has been done, I think, both here and at other polling houses, but we’ll see. But during the course of those long hours it occurred that the act of voting is not rationality encapsulated, but an intrinsically and intensely emotional act – sometimes hinging on lingering party loyalty, on other occasions an act of fury against a flailing government.

So why not assess the emotional certainty between an individual party choice and its impact on headline vote intention numbers? What if ‘intend-ers’ or ‘serious consider-ers’ are actually betrayed by an emotional obstacle that forces their retreat to party safe havens, or more to the point, what if social desirability bias (incorrectly also known as the ‘Shy Tory’ phenomenon) prevents people from admitting who they intend to vote for, pushing them into the unhelpful “I don’t know” or “refusal” boxes?

The advance of neuroscience and associated techniques has been massively helpful to this investigation. The application of Implicit Attitude Testing to the level of seriousness associated with specific party intentions has yielded important outcomes.

For example, we all believed that UKIP was the Marmite party; loved and loathed in equal measure, and intensively on both sides. Labour now holds that precious title under its precarious leader. If the emotional connection with the party really is severed as a result, as it has been in Scotland, its recent decline may only be the start of a perilous journey.

Modelling in emotional certainty is undeniably a problematic and, to some, dangerous evolution, moving stated voting preferences further and further away from their raw component. ICM has some history in this area, and in our case post-data intervention has had, at worst, a neutral impact on headline data, and at best, made some of our final predictions exceptionally accurate.

It’s worth more work, in my view, and we’re looking closely at it. But it’s not just about voting intentions, it’s just as much about policy, and about effectively communicating it to the largely unengaged masses. Perhaps even more than with vote intentions, ICM’s tests have shed previously unforeseen light on the power of public opinion to be potentially misleading, possibly manifestly, and to great detriment to campaigning causes.

Using our new policy and messaging evaluation tool, the Policy Emotional Certainty Score (PECS), we find that emotional reinforcement in a new policy idea or campaign message is often evident, but in other cases there is a real disconnect between explicitly stated support and emotional connectivity.

The EU referendum is a great case in point – arguments about the perceived failure of ‘Project Fear’ have largely been impressionistic and assumptive, but our tests during the referendum campaign revealed that ‘Taking Back Control’ had twice the emotional power of ‘Project Fear’.

I didn’t know it at the time, but this was the single clue I had that Leave really were going to win (although to be fair, there was at least as much suggesting the alternative outcome). What we’re seeing here, at last, is not just artificial wordsmithing, but evidence that what people explicitly say can indeed sometimes be at odds with what they emotionally feel.

For now our concentration is on message and policy development, with the recent Budget being a great opportunity to cross-reference our new technique against conventional polling. For example, headline polling figures might make you think that the Tories should have stuck to their guns on National Insurance Contributions (NICs) for the self-employed. A third of the public supported the NIC measure to raise much needed funds (the same number against), so why not ride out the storm and collect the cash?

Few read party election manifestos these days, except political hacks, and breaking promises is what politicians do. The agenda would soon enough turn back to Labour’s performance. Wrong. Breaking a pledge is seen as a breach of trust, and measuring people’s emotional certainty on this matter provides compelling evidence for politicians never doing so.

That third of the public who didn’t have much of a problem with it? Actually, when accounting for the emotional component the PECS Score indicated that only 5 (Indexed out of 100 ) could be counted on to be unconcerned by pledge-breaking. But there’s much more here. The social care crisis has touched a national nerve, and in confirmation the explicit score ICM found in support of raising a new £1billion for it ( 79%) was matched by the policy emotional commitment score ( 80 ).

The Sugar Tax, too, is as much an injection of energy to the emotional coffers as a post-lunch chocolate bar is to a tired child: 59% support it explicitly but this rises to 77 when we factor in the emotional component. And you know that age-old ropey premise about people being willing to pay extra in tax if the proceeds were ring-fenced for the NHS (but then voting for someone saying the opposite)? Guess what: 42% still say they would support this, but the PECS score plummets to only 15. Look forward to seeing that one on Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto suicide note.

It gets even worse though for supporters of the Left: if you suggest that income tax would be the funding source and then put a figure of what it’ll cost you next to it, expect to see manifesto pledge-breaking levels of emotional emptiness.

You know what? Journalists, the public and even you dear reader, might not believe pollsters anymore, but all of a sudden we might not be so sure about you either.

Martin Boon is a director at ICM Unlimited

Published in Research Live on 12th April 2017 - https://www.research-live.com/article/opinion/hearts-and-minds/id/5021112